Hoya Paranoia | The Hoya's Sports Blog

The wild, wild West. If the country’s foremost basketball experts are to be believed, this is where all the fun is going to happen. Top-seeded Gonzaga’s weak schedule has gamblers looking to spice up their brackets, salivating at the chance to throw all the chalk out the window.

Or, it WOULD, if the committee hadn’t been a total fun-sucker and put Ohio State in the region as well. The Buckeyes, a No. 2 seed, are soaring in most analysts’ estimations after outlasting the likes of Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State and Wisconsin for the Big Ten title.

As a result, most bettors are going to ink The Ohio State University in the region’s Final Four slot, much to the chagrin of New Mexico and Gonzaga fans. The pick is pretty much impervious to criticism — the Buckeyes are hot (eight-game win streak), experienced (Final Four last year) and battle-tested (the Big Ten was kind of good I guess). But will they win? Our predictions after the jump.

MOST VULNERABLE HIGH SEED: Gonzaga

Sorry to be a downer, but it’s completely true: The ’Zags are operating under a different set of expectations than every other No. 1 seed until they prove they can beat up on major-conference teams. Gonzaga will beat Southern in the opener, but watch out for tough potential matchups with Pittsburgh in the second round or the Fightin’ Buzzcuts of Wisconsin in the regional semifinal.

As far as first-round upsets go, I don’t see anything dramatic happening here. A lot of people will get sucked into the Slim Shady Marshall Henderson hype and pick Ole Miss to take out Wisconsin in the 5-12 game. It’s certainly possible, but while the brash guard can shoot his team into any game, he’s just as likely to chuck them out of it. A quick, undiscriminating trigger isn’t your friend against a Bo Ryan defense. I see sixth-seeded Arizona falling to 11th-seeded Belmont as the more likely first-round disappointment — the Wildcats are fading down the stretch, and the Bruins can fill it up quickly from beyond the arc.

Continue reading →

The 2013 East Regional has a little bit of everything: a well-documented contender throughout the year in Indiana, a surprise elite team in Miami, the classic Cinderella pick in Butler and a team named after a fruit and/or color (we’re not sure which) in Syracuse. To be sure, there are lots of other contenders worth mentioning: Marquette could easily make a run, and freshman sensation Anthony Bennett could lead UNLV further than we expect. But will anyone prevent a seemingly scripted Miami-Indiana matchup? Upsets and Final Four pick after the jump.

If senior center Andrew Smith can shut down Bucknell’s Mike Muscala, another magical run might be in the cards. (Nick Laham/Getty Images)

Most Likely Upset: No. 11 Bucknell over No. 6 Butler

I was tempted to pick Davidson over Marquette here, but SportsCenter has informed me that Stephen Curry is now regularly dropping 40 points per night for Golden State and no longer plays in college. It’s probably a stupid idea to bet against Brad Stevens in March (incredibly, he’s cemented a Tom Izzo-like reputation in just a few years), but I’ll do it anyway. Butler has been wildly inconsistent this year, knocking off Indiana and Gonzaga but losing to Charlotte and La Salle, while senior center Mike Muscala and Bucknell have crushed their competition consistently. I’m taking Bucknell, the little team that could out of the Patriot League — yes, the same Patriot League that Georgetown plays football in — in a close one.

Low Seed Most Likely to Make a Run: Butler

Continue reading →

The second-most-sacred Sunday in America has finally arrived (sorry, Jesus, but the other one comes in February), stirring basketball fans and degenerate gamblers from Spokane to South Beach into a state of gleeful anticipation as they furiously refresh their web browsers and hang on to TV analysts’ every word.

It’s Selection Sunday, folks.

Hoops-heads’ second Christmas has been robbed of some if its mystique in recent years, as ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and other pundits have lifted the veil between the NCAA selection committee’s formulas and the public. Predicting the field is now a near-exact science, and most die-hard fans have known their team’s projected seed every week since December. Still, the air will remain tense in college towns across the country until each of this year’s chosen 68 knows its place in the most celebrated tournament in sports.

But you knew that already. What you came to find out is what the hell is going to happen to Georgetown.

Well, break out your Rodney Dangerfield tapes. If Lunardi is right — and he tends to be the best in this business, barring any Nate Silver venture we don’t know about — the Hilltop will be forced into another year of the “I don’t get no respect” refrain.

Continue reading →